Huge challenges for the economy

– The war has reshaped the reality of Europe’s security and economy. One of the fundamental issues that our report focuses on is all the consequences of this war, emphasised Zygmunt Berdychowski, Chairman of the Programme Council of the Economic Forum, during the presentation of the annual report of the Warsaw School of Economics and the Economic Forum.

Challenging environment

– It is essential that we seek not just a diagnosis, but also directions for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe, so that this period of stagnation, which undoubtedly awaits us, is as short as possible, Berdychowski added. – The report presents trends, risks and challenges, as well as future directions to ensure our region’s economies continue to grow despite the conditions we have to face, such as a pandemic, a terrible war, inflation, limited access to energy resources or deteriorating climate of public opinion, noted Piotr Wachowiak, Vice-chancellor of the Warsaw School of Economics.

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Biznes

Ogrom wyzwań dla gospodarki

Doroczny raport SGH wyznacza kierunki nie tylko debat na Forum Ekonomicznym, ale może być również ważną przesłanką dla decyzji w polityce gospodarczej.

Paweł Borys, President of the Polish Development Fund, underlined the importance of two priorities for the Polish economy as indicators for economic policy. – The first is to preserve the potential of the economy so that, once it has gone through erratic periods, it can return to a path of sustainable growth, without a spike in unemployment and a wave of company bankruptcies, P. Borys said. Second, it is important to establish a certain “NATO economic security system”.

Housing availability

This annual report of the Warsaw School of Economics covers 11 pressing topics, such as the economy in the face of Covid-19, the impact of inflation on the labour market and GDP growth, the housing market, the energy transition in automotive industry, logistics in the petrochemical industry, energy in the times of price shocks, the health sector and the innovation system, among others. Each of these topics will be covered in debates at the Economic Forum.

For example, the findings on the financial affordability of housing in the CEE countries between 2015 and 2021 are quite interesting. It turns out that in all countries surveyed, except Romania, housing prices grew faster than household incomes.

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Opinie Ekonomiczne

Bogusław Chrabota: Forum in the shadow cast by the war

It would be no exaggeration to say that the Economic Forum is a chronicle of the political, social, and economic life of the last 30 years. It’s been three decades of observing, discussing, and contemplating the changing world. These discussions could be the basis not just for a fascinating chronicle of change, but for an epoch-making work documenting the political history of the region, facing so many challenges, so many levels of risk, and so many crossroads.

– As for credit availability, it should be pointed out that Poland hit the lowest level in 2015–2021, and there is no improvement, noted dr Adam Czerniak of the Warsaw School of Economics. – This is a negative insight for the future. With the NBP [Central Bank of the Republic of Poland] interest rates rising and credit precautionary policy getting stricter in 2022, the financial availability of housing in Poland is falling dramatically, A. Czerniak assessed.

Price shock

The issue of the energy crisis is tackled from many angles in the Warsaw School of Economics report. As indicated by prof. Dorota Niedziółka, there is a high correlation between changes in the price of energy resources and inflationary processes in the economy; the increasing price of energy resources is also reflected in rising CO2 emission allowance prices.

– We observe a strong confirmation of these processes this year. This determines the competitiveness of companies and the economic policy decisions of countries, she stated. – The current situation reinforces the state interventionism with consequences for all energy market participants. In our opinion, there is no turning back and the question that remains is how long this should last, as further noted by experts from the Warsaw School of Economics.

Report partner: ISW