Reported in partnership with Personnel Service
Personnel Service recently published a report showing that there has been a significant flow of Ukrainian workers leaving Poland. What does this data look like in detail?
Krzysztof Inglot: According to NBP data and according to our estimates, there were 1.2–1.3 million Ukrainians living in Poland last year on average. As a result of the pandemic, we have been and are still facing very rapid flows of Ukrainians leaving Poland. Shortly after the state of epidemic emergency was declared in Poland, these departures reached a peak. According to the Border Guard, over 200,000 people left in the first week. The prolonged work on the first Anti-Crisis Shield was also a factor in this. From the beginning, we fought for the introduction of provisions that would allow foreigners to extend their Polish residence or work permit until 30 days after the state of epidemic emergency ends. And these provisions were introduced. They stabilized the situation with regard to concerns among Ukrainian workers and stopped the wave of departures. We estimate that around 1 million people from Ukraine remained in our country. By our estimates, the number of arrivals from Ukraine has now dropped by around 15 proc. compared to last year. Slightly more people are leaving than arriving.
What are the reasons for this? Is it only the coronavirus, or are there some other reasons?
The main reason is the coronavirus. The pandemic sparked panic, caused difficulties in getting around Ukraine, made it impossible to fly to Poland for several months, and the border with Poland could only be crossed on foot for a long time. This led to lower mobility for Ukrainians. This was compounded by the pandemic effect, which triggered a micro-crisis in the first half of the year: according to Ministry of Labour estimates, the number of jobs in Poland decreased by around 150,000 during this time. However, from the beginning, we pointed out that the European data stating that the pandemic would be very painful for Poland, that unemployment would reach 10 percent, and that the situation would be very serious by the end of the year, would prove incorrect. It's September already and it's clearly not the case. This is due to the fact that EU analysts did not take into account the so-called 'Ukrainian cushion', i.e. over a million people who are very flexible. And out of those 150,000 people affected by the decrease in jobs, it wasn't usually Poles who were laid off, but precisely those who had to return to Ukraine because, for example, they had finished working here, but they also left based on their sense of safety. As a result, the decline in the number of jobs in Poland is not reflected in the data on unemployment, which increased to around 4 proc. What's more, we can now see an economic recovery; we can see, for example, that the automotive sector is slowly recovering and is starting to hire. But we're also seeing a recovery among manufacturers of consumer goods, such as televisions and refrigerators, as well as food products. We see a very high demand for workers in these sectors. Factories are advertising vacancies for 50, 100, and sometimes even 200 people. This indicates a rebound in the economy, which has already absorbed the Poles who have entered the labour market as a result of the pandemic.
