During a debate organised by Rzeczpospolita – 'Coronavirus Pandemic: Huge Threat or Perhaps Opportunity for New Opening in Polish Exports' – experts have exchanged views on an issue how to assess results recorded by the Polish exports in the first six months (7% drop compared to the same period in 2019).
"We can now observe that export results, in spite of grave concerns, will not decline at the yearend by 15-20%, but – according to our estimations – by mere 3-4%. Clearly, the results will be highly diversified in terms of specific industries and geographically. Notably, the exports to Germany will decrease considerably less than it has been feared; however, in the case of other euro zone economies, such as Italy, France or Spain, the decline will be tangible. Imports from these countries used to be substantial, while nowadays their purchase capacity has been decidedly reduced. On the other hand, sales to highly developed countries outside the EU, including the United States, are on the right track," analysed Piotr Soroczyński, Chief Economist of the Polish Chamber of Commerce.
Safe trade
"As far as exports to the Western European countries affected by the pandemic, such as France, Italy or Spain, are concerned, our entrepreneurs increasingly more often address us with inquiries about insurance. A risk of trade with these states is for now difficult to assess and there are hardly any insurers willing to take on these risks. Additionally, the domestic exporters also want to protect themselves in dealings with business partners from the United Kingdom, mainly in the context of still unclear rules governing trade following Brexit," stated Janusz Władyczak, President and CEO of KUKE. In his opinion, in times of such great uncertainty – given that we also cannot forget about the trade war between the USA and China – safe trade will be gaining in importance.
"For certain, we note increased interest in the Middle East and Asian markets. Numerous windows of opportunities have opened there for Polish companies. This is a good sign, since these markets had been closed for us for a long time due to their specific nature and internal circumstances. Some Polish enterprises have taken advantage of this chance. We can only hope that it will prove to be a permanent trend which will help diversify our exports in geographical terms," clarified Mr. Władyczak in the context of a question whether the collapse of Western European markets might somehow force Polish exporters to look for new non-European outlets. All the same, as he underlined, the situation on the markets most important from our perspective, i.e. Germany and the Czech Republic, was fully normalising.
