– The big crisis is still to come – said Kołodko during the debate „Waiting for the Big Crisis – From Potential Failure to Unquestionable Success”. In his opinion, what we are dealing with now is a crisis of fundamental values. „Such are the effects of the declining idea of neoliberalism, which the United States tried to force absolutely in vain”, explains Kołodko. „We are now on the verge of shaping the new economy; there is, however, no reason to speak of recession or a crisis.”In corroboration of that view, Kołodko quotes facts: the growth rate is quite good and amounts to approximately 5 percent GNP, while inflation is at its lowest over the whole generation despite everything. „The big crisis is still to come, and what we are experiencing now is just a kindergarten exercise compared to it.”
This is not to say that the crisis is unavoidable. „We may well turn out to be the ones to give advice to American economists”, Kołodko argued. Edmund Phelps, Professor at the Columbia University and the 2006 Nobel Prize winner also considers this conceivable. In his view, however, government action is required and stimulation of investment in innovation. „As I see it, two types of reforms are needed to make it possible”, says the Nobel Prize winner. „These are: tax changes and banking reforms.”
According to Prof. Marek Belka, Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Europe, the crisis is today best visible in the media, which quote the bankers” alarmist pronouncements. „They are absolutely justified, as it is the banking sector that finds itself in the most critical situation”, says Belka. „To a person working for Citi Bank, the question whether he or she might get fired matters much more than the drop from 10 to 1.5 percent in the GNP growth dynamics.
Besides, the Professor does not quite agree with the allegation that the UN is passing through a crisis. „The growth amounts there to 3.3 percent GNP, do you call that a crisis?” he asked. „Besides, the weak dollar is conducive to an economic boom. Yet the fact that the problem first emerged in the banking sector shows that the markets are not always right; worse still, information coming from that source may be not exactly uncertain but plainly wrong”.
Also the head of the Prime Minister’s team of economic advisors Michał Boni vouched that the crises we used to experience are in the past now, which is due to the shortened time of response and better methods for identifying the sources of collapse. „Young people in Poland find it hard to get jobs that would be sufficiently paid, and work in England and Ireland instead below their qualifications, while only one person in four aged over 50 still remains professionally active”, says Boni.
