Perspectives for Polish politics

Politics is and will be highly unpredictable – said politicians of various options participating in the debate in Karpacz.

Publikacja: 09.09.2021 19:59

Foto: Edytor.net, Rafał Klimkiewicz

Michał Kolanko

What will determine the result of next elections in Poland? This was one of the major topics of a panel discussion during the Economic Forum in Karpacz attended by the opposition and PiS (Law and Justice party) politicians. Robert Kropiwnicki from PO (Civic Platform party), Marcin Horała from PiS, Krzysztof Gawkowski from Lewica (Left party) and Krzysztof Bosak from Konfederacja (Confederation party) took art in the discussion. The debate was moderated by prof. Henryk Domański and was preceded by a presentation prepared by Marcin Duma, a head of IBRiS polling company.

Hopscotch

„How to win elections in Poland. Hopscotch” – is the title of Marcin Duma’s presentation, which preceded the panel discussion. The main hypothesis of Mr. Duma concerned the fact that the presidential election in 2020 was the last one, during which we could observe fully operational long term axis of division in Polish politics, while now both this axis and associated paradigms are being reconfigured.

– Today both PiS and the entire political scene are facing the consequences of emboldening the lower class. To date the whole division – at this highest meta level looked like PiS representing a safety message. The opposition is a message of progressivism and freedom. The safety message is conservatism, statism and strength. The division of these attitudes in the electorate during the presidential campaign was transparent. The hypothesis is that it was the last year when this division was functioning in this manner – said Duma.

Where is this paradigm shift coming from? – On the one hand the pandemic and the violation of the abortion taboo was the catalyst for this change. However, these were not the reasons, but just a catalyst. What happened? Well, the period of PiS rule led to substantial improvement of financial situation in Poland - said Marcin Duma.

Mr. Duma argued that these many years of change led to aforementioned change of political division in Poland. – A large group of people started to have aspirations. We asked Poles when their lives were the best, and most Poles indicated the period of the rule of the United Right in financial terms. This gave rise to new aspirational needs. Now this emboldened lower class started to have aspirations. The lower class is looking for attributes, which would emphasise its advancement – said the head of IBRiS.

The issue of the Polish Deal was also discussed in the presentation. – This is the idea from a somewhat different era, from before 2020. That’s why it hasn’t worked as its creators expected. Previously people who did not have much but wanted to have heard that they would get it. Now they believe that they got it. And they don’t want to get it at all – argued Duma. He concluded that PiS electorate is moving towards the progressive side and the opposition electorate towards safety. – Why do they want to be progressive? They say in focus groups: LGBT? Why not. Women in focus groups talk about restoration of abortion or maybe even going further than that. They buy it because they believe that these are the attitudes of a middle class – summed up Duda.

Difficult prognosis for 2023

The politicians’ debate concerned the future of politics halfway before the 2023 elections. – In my opinion there are two types of doing politics. The one that concerns listening to opinion polls and following what comes out of them. And the second type where we stick to our beliefs and believe in classical political leadership. This means that there is a large group of people who have their own beliefs and are open to a new look at politics. Confederation is an example of the latter approach. The situation is unpredictable. This subtle game of aspirations, this whole analysis of electorate flows is disturbed when the political leadership changes - said Krzysztof Bosak from the Confederation.

Krzysztof Gawkowski, the head of the Left club in the Sejm (lower house of Parliament) was talking about unpredictability. – Politics is not predictable. This is the resultant of random events, ambitions, personal issues, leadership skills. Who could predict Covid or lockdowns? I strongly believe that consistency is the most important element of politics. The Left, e.g. in respect to the issue of migrants is unambiguous. The voters will decide in 2023 whether we were consistent in fundamental matters. Just like in respect to the issue of leadership - said Gawkowski.

Marcin Horała, PiS MP and vice-minister of infrastructure was also discussing the challenges regarding the 2023 elections. – PiS won the first election on the promise of putting the end to division of the country into Poland A and Poland B. It won the second election based on assessment of the public that it kept its promise. We are trapped somewhat as the parties. Covid also shhok that belief that progress would continue. On the other hand, we have a social advancement – to Poland A which may cause the voters to vote against PiS as a part of the associated advancement package. We will do everything to prevent it from happening. Especially that a large segment of Poland A emerged which would not buy this anti-PiS package – said Horala.

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