On the second day of the Economic Forum in Karpacz, during the debate ‘The housing market now and in the coming decades’, experts, government representatives, and leaders of the property development industry sought to assess the current situation and outline possible future scenarios for housing in Poland. Moderated by Paweł Czuryło, Managing Editor of Gremi Media, the discussion centred on the major transformations underway: the state’s new role in social housing, the reduction in borrowing costs following interest rate cuts, demographic pressures, the potential expansion of the rental sector, and fresh regulatory challenges for the commercial market.

The panellists agreed that Poland continues to face a substantial housing deficit, estimated at more than one million units. This gap, they argued, leaves room for multiple approaches to addressing demand – across both the commercial and public sectors. They stressed that the foundation of sustainable development lies in building synergies between these two spheres rather than treating them as competing alternatives.

New government strategy: from owning to renting

The most significant declaration from the government, delivered by Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy Tomasz Lewandowski, was the announcement of a paradigm shift in state housing policy. After 35 years of transformation, during which the absolute priority was home ownership, the government now intends to concentrate its efforts on supporting the construction of rental housing, particularly within the social segment.

‘We have prepared a comprehensive housing strategy, and I hope that in the coming weeks I will have the pleasure of presenting it together with Minister Andrzej Domański. These will no longer be mere political announcements, but concrete measures, as next year’s draft budget allocates record levels of support for housing programmes’, said Lewandowski. He stressed that ‘the state must support all initiatives that can advance social, municipal, and assisted housing,’ announcing PLN 6.7 billion from national funds and a further PLN 1 billion from the National Recovery Plan (KPO) for housing in 2026.

The government does not intend to introduce subsidies for the purchase of freehold property.

According to Lewandowski, the objective of the current governing coalition is to create a comprehensive strategy to deliver affordable housing for those in the so-called rent gap – people whose income is too high to qualify for municipal housing yet insufficient to buy or rent on the open market. One of the central instruments will be housing cooperatives providing tenant flats.

Lewandowski further announced that the forthcoming draft of the new Social Rental Housing Act, due to enter into force in 2027, will enable housing cooperatives to obtain non-refundable 10% grants alongside repayable 50-year financing. ‘All this is intended to guarantee relatively low rents’, he emphasised.

Commercial market: stabilisation overshadowed by challenges

Representatives of the property development sector observed that the current situation is very much a ‘customer’s market’. As noted by Iwona Sroka, member of the management board of Murapol SA, the supply of new flats is among the highest in years, offering buyers a wide selection. She emphasised that the market remains highly sensitive to interest rates, with each reduction improving mortgage affordability.

‘Customers now have a great deal to choose from. The company I represent alone has more than 4,000 flats available across several Polish cities. Of these, 200 are ready for immediate occupancy after purchase, and a further 700 will be available by the end of this year’, said Sroka.

She added: ‘Another positive development worth highlighting is the stabilisation we are seeing in both flat prices and construction costs’. At the same time, she cautioned that faster sales are still held back by interest rates, which, although reduced, remain high compared with other countries.

Sroka also reminded participants that on 11 September a ‘strict requirement to publish prices according to the Price Transparency Act’ will come into force. ‘As developers, including the Murapol Group, we have been preparing for this for many weeks. This is also a major IT undertaking that will bring greater transparency to the market’, she explained.

Bartosz Guss, General Director of the Polish Association of Property Developers, appealed to the government to adopt a ‘first, do no harm’ approach to the commercial market. He warned of an increasing number of regulations that risk pushing up construction costs and, consequently, flat prices. As an example, he cited the forthcoming obligation, effective 1 January 2026, to design temporary shelters in new multi-family buildings.

‘I fear that this regulation will lead to many paradoxes, and I hope it can be improved. At present, it is unclear how temporary shelters are to be designed, which poses a serious challenge for both architects and local governments’, Guss noted.

Social housing: scalability needed

The question of social housing has prompted a lively debate. Mateusz Bonca, President of JLL in Poland, argued that existing models – such as social housing associations (TBS) and social housing initiatives (SIM) – while valuable, lack sufficient scalability. He proposed supplementing the system with a model capable of delivering large, repeatable projects, producing tens of thousands of flats annually, financed partly by the State Treasury and partly by the market.

‘We need to consider how to bridge the gap between the commercial market and the TBS, SIM, and municipal housing systems with a model that is truly scalable’, Bonca emphasised.

Adam Czerniak, Vice-President of the National Property Stock and professor at the Warsaw School of Economics, defended the scalability of existing solutions, stressing that SIMs rely on cooperation across multiple local governments. He concurred, however, that effective management of State Treasury land is essential to ensuring that newly built flats genuinely address local needs.

‘To build, you first need land – whether for SIMs, TBSs, or development projects targeting people currently caught in the rent gap. That is why at KZN we are working to improve the management of State Treasury land in the context of housing construction. Our efforts include cooperation not only with SIMs, TBSs, and local governments to allocate land for municipal housing, but also with market players to meet housing demand and exert greater influence over what is built, and for whom’, Czerniak stressed.

Demography is not just about numbers

An important theme of the debate was the impact of demographics on the housing market. Adam Czerniak cautioned against oversimplified, linear assumptions, stressing that housing policy directly influences demographic trends. In his view, the availability of stable and secure housing can encourage families to expand. ‘In our country, the rent gap widens with the number of children in a household, whereas in Western Europe we are observing the opposite trend’, noted the professor from the Warsaw School of Economics.

The panellists also highlighted that, despite the overall decline in Poland’s population, migration from smaller towns to major urban centres remains a pressing challenge, often driven by a shortage of suitable housing.

Are Poles ready to rent?

One of the central questions in the debate concerned the mentality of Poles and their attachment to property ownership. Deputy Minister Lewandowski argued that, until now, Poles had effectively lacked a real choice, as there was no rental market that was stable, secure, and affordable.

Adam Czerniak supported this view, pointing to the experience of the Polish diaspora, who have no difficulty renting flats abroad. ‘It is not that Poles are unwilling to rent, but that they are discouraged by unfavourable rental conditions, as renting in Poland is neither stable, secure, nor affordable’, he noted.

Bartosz Guss struck a more cautious tone, observing that research continues to show the enduring importance Poles attach to owning their own homes.

The panellists agreed, however, that 2025 could prove to be a customer-oriented year for the housing market, with an exceptionally broad range of new properties available. The principal challenge will be the rollout of a new state policy focused on developing a strong social rental sector. While the government’s target of building 20,000-25,000 such flats annually is highly ambitious, the speakers considered it a move in the right direction.

At the same time, the commercial sector is calling for dialogue and a framework of stable, predictable legislation that does not impose additional costs or barriers. The debate concluded with agreement that the future of Poland’s housing market will hinge on effectively combining the strengths of the public and private sectors to address the country’s still considerable housing needs.

—czu