Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU, but maintaining this growth rate will require a significant increase in investment levels — which in turn means ensuring adequate financing.

‘As our report shows, investment needs — mainly in energy transition, defence, and digitalisation — total around four trillion zlotys. These expenditure figures are indeed enormous’. The main source of capital remains, of course, the banking sector, which has demonstrated excess liquidity in Poland in recent years. There have been periods when deposits outstripped loans eightfold. Currently, the loan-to-deposit ratio stands at 57 per cent, compared with an EU average of 106 per cent. This shows our clear potential to provide credit to the economy — a potential we estimate at over PLN 550 billion’, he said in the Rzeczpospolita studio during the Economic Forum in Karpacz.

He emphasised that domestic banks are unable to fund major infrastructure projects on their own, as the banking sector’s capital base remains insufficient for the economy’s needs. The law and financial prudential rules (such as concentration limits) remain strict in this regard. Currently, however, bold investment decisions are hindered not by a lack of capital, but by policy and regulatory uncertainty, a low risk appetite among domestic businesses, and weaknesses in project preparation.

Nevertheless, there is a clear rise in loan demand compared with last year. ‘While this is not yet a satisfying level, we have seen a year-on-year increase of nearly 9 per cent in lending to the non-financial sector — with nearly PLN 240 billion in loans granted in the first half of 2026, including over PLN 100 billion to businesses. This is undoubtedly the result of interest rate cuts and improved credit access for firms,’ said Białek.

A similar trend is evident in household borrowing, with record figures posted in the mortgage loan segment. Here, too, the key drivers are reduced interest rates and increased creditworthiness among Poles.

Debate periodically resurfaces in Poland over whether loan interest rates should be linked directly to the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate. The President of the Polish Bank Association believes such proposals deserve consideration. ‘In the case of consumer loans, which are governed by a separate directive, we have had this option from the outset. I see no reason why the exact same solution should not also be envisaged for mortgages, especially as a similar option already exists in many countries today,’ said the president.

Białek does not expect this option to become predominant. ‘It would not become the primary indicator for lending, as most borrowers consistently opt for a fixed interest rates over a period of time. In my view, however, it is worth introducing this option and seeing how it works,’ he added.

The sector’s net profit in the first seven months fell by 11 per cent compared with the same period in 2025, down to PLN 25.13 billion. This was driven in part by interest rate cuts from a record high of 6.75 per cent four years ago to the current 3.75 per cent. ‘The second factor is the 30 per cent corporate income tax rate. Let me remind you that this has been explicitly described as unconstitutional, including in the opinion of the Senate’s Legislative Office. Banks are the only sector of the economy subject to a different CIT rate than other sectors, even though, in terms of profitability — according to stock exchange data — they rank only 14th,’ said the president.

The representative of the Polish Bank Association emphasised that the Polish banking sector faces the highest effective tax rate in the European Union, at 43.5 per cent. ‘We are the sector within the national economy that bears the heaviest tax burden. One in every four zlotys of CIT flowing into the state budget is paid by banks, and seven of the ten largest CIT payers are banks. We also face some of the highest bank levies in addition to CIT. And let us not forget that we support the Polish state to the greatest extent in the European Union when it comes to holding Treasury debt securities, which account for over 25 per cent of our assets,’ the president pointed out.

The CIT rate for banks was raised from 19 per cent to 30 per cent in 2026. In the first half of the year alone, the sector paid a total of PLN 15.8 billion in CIT and the tax on certain financial institutions — nearly 39 per cent more than the previous year. According to estimates by ZBP, net sector profits could fall from PLN 49.1 billion in 2025 to around PLN 38.2 billion in 2026. The CIT increase alone could reduce banks’ profits by roughly PLN 8.9 billion.