Countless opportunities but also considerable challenges for trade

The issue of the future of Polish exports after the pandemic was discussed by experts in the “Rzeczpospolita” Lounge at the Economic Forum in Karpacz. The invited guests addressed the issue of Poland's chance to quickly make it to the top 20 of the world's exporters (according to the data of the US Central Intelligence Agency for 2019, Poland currently ranks 21st). The Statistics Poland (GUS) data for both 2020, when Polish exports in USD increased by 1.1 per cent (in PLN by 2.8 per cent), and for 2021, when the growth is reaching over 20 per cent, is a reason for optimism.

We are doing well during the crisis

- The pandemic has reshuffled the balance of power in global trade, but the flexibility of Polish entrepreneurs and exporters has allowed them to adapt to the new reality, benefiting from shorter supply chains. One could say that they like crisis situations, and certainly know how to take advantage of them - said Janusz Władyczak, president of KUKE. He added that there are also challenges, such as the constantly growing freight costs, which have increased several fold, while containers from China can be expected to reach their destinations only after several months. - Meanwhile, the deliveries to closer, European markets have remained "just in time" and - importantly - were continued despite the threat of the pandemic. I hope that the entrepreneurs who concluded new contracts during the crisis will maintain them despite the stabilising health and trade situation around the world - added the head of KUKE.

There are also certain threats

- Growing prices of sea, but also road freight of goods are a huge challenge also for Polish logistics and transport companies. What is worse, the costs cannot be decreased. Another problem concerns the Polish-Belarusian border. On our side we still have insufficient cargo handling infrastructure - said Patrycja Pendrakowska, president of the Boym Institute.

As she added, our biggest trade partner - Germany - has similar problems. - A few days ago the mayor of Duisburg, a city on the New Silk Road, pointed out the same problems: growing, high costs of transport and problems with infrastructure on the Polish side - mentioned president Pendrakowska, emphasising however that she is not concerned about the prospects of our exports.

Łukasz Grabowski, deputy director of the Exports Centre of the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH), indicated that exporters are complaining not only about the growing freight costs, but also about the increasing problem with raw materials shortage, including aluminium, steel and timber, the prices of which also keep rising. This could considerably affect the domestic furniture industry, as China and the US are buying up timber on a massive scale. - Therefore, in order to keep strengthening our exports, we need to ensure uninterrupted supply of raw materials and semi-finished products - stressed the PAIH representative.

Optimistic data

Marek Niedużak, Deputy Minister for Development and Technology, expressed his optimism about the statistics. - The recent data shows that Polish exports in the first half of the year grew by 22.9 per cent YOY. However, even if we compare this data with the first half of 2019 - since we have to consider the impact of the pandemic in 2020 - it still reflects a 16 per cent increase. Nothing indicates that our economy and exports will slow down in the second half of the year. There is strong evidence that we will significantly improve our results and our place in the ranking, although naturally the latter will also depend on the export results of the countries which are ahead of us on the list - explained Minister Niedużak.

Countries that are directly ahead of us are Australia (20th) as well as Switzerland (19th) and Belgium (18th). In the opinion of the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development and Technology, Polish exports can expect more opportunities than challenges. The latter include maintaining competitiveness in the face of decreasing labour supply and rising energy costs resulting from climate policy. - However, the shortening of supply chains, even by 10-30%, is advantageous to Poland due to our geographical location - analysed Minister Niedużak.

- The export results in the first half of the year are spectacular if we compare them with the results for the previous years. According to the data of Statistics Poland (GUS), the value of exports reached 650 billion PLN. Only eight years ago, these were the figures for the entire year. It is a giant leap - one that we are repeating year by year. This is why we keep getting closer to make it to the group of 20 largest global exporters. If we add to that the fact that we can release the export potential of the SME sector (exports by small companies are - as a rule - quite limited), thus increasing our exporters base, we will be able to significantly accelerate the growth rate - commented Mr Grabowski. In his opinion, what has to be taken into account is investor activity in Poland, as it will generate additional exports. - EV batteries are already becoming a top Polish product. We have also become a leading exporter of furniture, cosmetic and food products. We have very good prospects ahead of us - remarked the PAIH representative.

He also emphasised that data from foreign trade offices of the agency, responsible for providing support for Polish exporters, is optimistic as well. In the eight months of this year, companies concluded over 230 contracts, compared to 100 contracts in 2020 for the same period. - We are receiving a growing number of enquiries. And, what is particularly promising, some of these enquiries concerns more distant markets, such as South-East Asia, Africa and North America - added Mr Grabowski.

- Analysing historical export data and forecasts, the former have always exceeded the latter. In this context, our optimism is justified, as our exports are likely to positively surprise us even more than we think - said Piotr Stolarczyk, Director for Trade Finance at Pekao SA. - What is more, this success is sustainable. Exports have been growing ever since we can remember. With hindsight, we can say that our exports and global trade collapsed only once, in 2009, during the previous global economic crisis initiated by the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers - added Mr Stolarczyk.

He also recalled the reasons for the crisis back then. - It turned out that the cause of the collapse of trade was the collapse of its financing. A significant reduction in financing had a very negative impact on the situation at that time - and we need to remember that as much as 80% of global trade requires financing. Hence, its importance cannot be underestimated also in the case of domestic exports - emphasised the Pekao representative.