During the Economic Forum, Rzeczpospolita organised a debate on the real estate market. During the debate, we discussed the challenges facing the industry and the most important issues not only for the industry, but also for all market participants. What is the current state of the real estate industry in Poland?
Currently, there is a very wide and attractive offer of housing available on both the primary and secondary markets. It is safe to say that 2025 will go down as the 'year of the customer' – developers offer a record number of flats, and the time it takes to sell them is relatively long. According to analyses of the largest Polish cities, it ranges from five to eight quarters.
This means that customers have a unique opportunity not only to choose from a wide and diverse offer, but also to opt for premises at a more advanced stage of completion or those for which the keys are handed over immediately after purchase. Murapol's offer is very extensive and well-matched to the planned sales volume – in order to sell approximately 3,000 flats, it is necessary to have an optimal 4,500-5,000 flats on offer. This is the best offer the company has ever had.
The year 2025 is also a period of persistently high interest rates, though they are already falling slightly. Until recently, they stood at 5%, but on 3 September this year, the Monetary Policy Council decided to cut them by 25 basis points to 4.75%. Analysts predict that further rate cuts will be gradual and spread out over time.
It should be noted that among European Union countries, only Hungary and Romania currently have higher interest rates. The average reference rate in the eurozone is currently 2.15 per cent, which means that interest rates in Poland are still more than twice as high. This is a significant barrier for people who intend to purchase property using a mortgage. This is also evident in purchasing behaviour – in times of low interest rates, almost 70 per cent of customers financed their purchases with loans, and about 30 per cent bought flats for cash. Currently, these proportions have evened out and stand at almost 50 per cent each.
If 2025 is likely to be the year of the customer, I cannot help but ask about prices. Do developers meet customer expectations and offer special offers? Is it possible to reduce prices if customers ask for it?
The housing market functions according to the basic rules of supply and demand, without any deliberate or regulated interference in pricing. It is highly competitive, with hundreds or even thousands of companies operating in it, from small and medium-sized companies to the largest developers, including those listed on the stock exchange. Consequently, when, as is currently the case, the supply of flats is high, we observe price stabilisation, and this is exactly what is happening.